The price of oil has hit yet another new record high, but the biggest impact may not be felt until winter
It's probably got to the point on the national newspapers where they're writing the story of a "new high in oil prices" in advance, and just filling in the details on the day. Yesterday's new high was $144 per barrel, and many commentators believe this represents just the first stage of continued rises.
Some of the rises are caused by what the sociologists call "self-fulfilling prophecies". For example, Russian President Dimitry Medvedev says that he expects oil to hit $150 a barrel, and, as his country is the world's second-largest producer, the markets believe him - and up goes the price.
To some extent, the constant headlines about a new highest price make people quickly forget that oil was anything but expensive. But it's worth remembering that it was only in January that it hit $100, and the January before it was down at $60.
If the price of oil was hitting its peak, then businesses would at least have the chance to learn to live with the current price. The problem, though, is that a price which is constantly drifting upwards continues to apply pressure to the economy, giving business less opportunity to cut its cloth according to the new conditions. Companies which rework their business models based on an oil price of $150 per barrel will have to do the whole thing again if it continues to rise and hits a high of $200.
That's why some commentators have predicted that this winter will prove to be a very tough one for business and the economy. Businesses have held off taking major steps to deal with the prevailing economic conditions - especially laying off large numbers of employees. As Edmund Conway puts it, "companies tend to wait until the last minute to cut jobs, but when they do, they do so en masse."
And, if Conway is correct, now might be a good time for small companies to do what they can to steel themselves against the coming deeper downturn. This winter may prove to be a tough one.